Key Takeaways:
- Polymarket traders have placed $115M on U.S. forces entering Iran by Dec. 31, giving it an 90% probability.
- Kalshi’s Strait of Hormuz closure market holds $7.3M in volume, reflecting deep concern over a 7-day blockade.
- Mojtaba Khamenei holds 64% odds to lead Iran by the end of 2026 as successor markets follow the Supreme Leader’s death.
Betting on Conflict Outcomes in 2026
The war, known as Operation Epic Fury by the U.S. and Roaring Lion by Israel, began Feb. 28, 2026, following the collapse of nuclear negotiations in Rome. U.S. and Israeli forces launched coordinated air strikes across Iran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was among those killed.
Polymarket‘s most active Iran markets now span five categories: military timelines, leadership succession, regional strikes, the Strait of Hormuz, and diplomacy. Combined, they reflect a conflict that traders believe is far from over and unlikely to be resolved on favorable terms.
On the military side, an 82% chance prices in that the Iran-Israel-U.S. conflict ends by Dec. 31. A ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran sits at 70% odds with $87 million in volume. Traders give a 69% probability that President Donald Trump announces an end to military operations against Iran by June 30. A full U.S. invasion before 2027 holds a 52% chance, backed by $3 million in volume.
Leadership markets are moving fast. With Khamenei dead and his son Mojtaba reported as successor, Polymarket gives Mojtaba Khamenei a 64% chance of holding power through the end of 2026, backed by $6 million in volume. A general leadership change before year-end sits at 36%. Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 carries just 18% odds, though $13 million in volume suggests traders are paying close attention.
The Strait of Hormuz is where some of the most concentrated bets live. Kalshi’s market tracking whether Iran will effectively close the strait for seven or more days carries $7.3 million in volume across three sub-markets. On Polymarket, Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal, carries a 31% chance of no longer being under Iranian control by June 30, with $12 million backing that outcome. An oil terminal strike by April 30 also sits at 31%.
Shipping disruption markets reflect a grim near-term outlook. Polymarket gives only 11% odds that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by April 30, rising to 33% by May 31. Average daily ship transits for April 3 are priced at 100% for the 0-10 range. A 51% chance of prices in daily transit above 20 ships by the end of April.
On Kalshi, the nuclear deal question draws the most dollar volume. Across four markets, traders have put $3.16 million into U.S.-Iran nuclear deal outcomes. A deal before 2027 carries 35% odds at 2.73x. A deal before August drops to 19% at 4.98x. Polymarket puts a nuclear deal by April 30 at just 3%.
Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027 sits at 9% on Polymarket with $474,000 in volume. An official U.S. declaration of war on Iran by Dec. 31 carries 8% odds with $5 million behind it.
Diplomatic activity is priced skeptically across both platforms. A U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 shows 56% odds with $1 million in volume on Polymarket. JD Vance speaking to Iranian negotiators by April 30 sits at 21%. Kalshi shows a 17% chance that the U.S. will reopen its embassy in Iran.
Trump visiting Iran before 2027 carries 11% odds on Kalshi. Before June 2026, that drops to 2%.
As of April 4, Iran has claimed two U.S. aircraft shot down near the Strait of Hormuz. The White House has issued an ultimatum: reopen the strait by April 6 or face strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Traders have been watching. The money moved before the deadline.
No Comment! Be the first one.