“If you had to point to one reason [crypto prediction markets] are able to come back to the US, you have to point to the Trump administration,” says Zach Hamilton, founder of crypto startup Sarcophagus, in an interview with WIRED. “Donald Trump. I mean, that’s it.”
Even before the arrival of Truth Predict, the Trump family had a financial interest in the spread of prediction markets in the US.
In January, Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as a strategic adviser. Then, in August, Polymarket received an investment from 1789 Capital, a venture capital firm where Trump Jr. serves as a partner. As part of the deal, Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board.
The ties between the Trump family and Polymarket, forged just as Polymarket was seeking reentry into the US, have drawn scrutiny from critics who claim the investment could amount to a conflict of interest. The deal creates an opportunity, they allege, for the Trump family to profit from changes in policy instigated by the Trump administration.
“No one is saying members of the president’s family cannot engage in normal capitalist activities in a capitalist country,” says Jeff Hauser, executive director at the Revolving Door Project, an organization that seeks to scrutinize the behavior of elected officials. “But Polymarket is the subject of heated political controversy. As such, the investment reflects a significant conflict of interest—and an avoidable one.”
“Neither the president nor his family have ever engaged, or will ever engage, in conflicts of interest,” says White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, in a statement to WIRED.
Polymarket, TMTG and 1789 Capital did not respond immediately to requests for comment.
The Truth Predict launch also tees up a scenario in which separate facets of the Trump family’s business empire could effectively compete against one another.
“From a venture capital perspective, many of us don’t like to invest in competing projects. We try to avoid that,” says Chris Perkins, managing partner at crypto VC firm CoinFund. “We try to identify category winners.”
Already, businesses connected to the Trump family are operating competing bitcoin treasuries. In June, a dispute broke out over which corporate entities were permitted to launch an “official” Trump-branded crypto wallet.
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