Fed Policy and Midterms Could Drive Bitcoin to $600K in 2026

End of Fed tightening, possible rate cuts, and rising liquidity could favor risk assets like Bitcoin in 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering near $90,000, with traders weighing near-term macro pressure against growing conviction that early 2026 could mark a defining phase for the crypto market.

The focus is shifting from short-term volatility to whether easing U.S. monetary policy and political tailwinds could set the stage for an aggressive upside move that some analysts place as high as $600,000.

Macro Forces and Market Structure Come into Focus

In a post shared on X earlier today, pseudonymous analyst Wise Crypto told their over 380,000 followers that an end to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening, possible rate cuts, improving short-term liquidity through Treasury bill support, and the U.S. midterm election cycle could all lean in favor of risk assets.

The trader added that softer labor data may further tilt the Fed toward a more accommodative stance, a backdrop that some forecasters believe could push Bitcoin anywhere between $300,000 and $600,000 if conditions align.

That longer-term optimism contrasts with the current market happenings, which saw BTC slip below $88,000 during a familiar late-Sunday sell-off before rebounding to around $90,000 during Asia trading.

The move came ahead of a heavy U.S. data calendar, including CPI and Core PCE inflation prints, which analysts say will shape expectations for Fed policy heading into 2026.

Price action remains choppy rather than directional, with CoinGecko data showing Bitcoin down by about 0.4% in the last 24 hours and close to 2% during the week. The 30-day view shows a pullback of nearly 7%, but despite the weakness, the flagship cryptocurrency still commands close to 57% of total crypto market value.

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Sentiment, Technical Levels, and the 2026 Outlook

The discussion of a 2026 boom is occurring alongside a broader narrative of industry maturation. In commentary over the weekend, Binance co-CEO Richard Teng predicted the crypto industry will move “beyond hype and speculation” toward deeper integration into global finance by next year.

He pointed to the steady growth of Bitcoin held by public companies and ETFs, coupled with a drop in exchange balances, as signs of a shift toward long-term holding that could reduce volatility. Teng also expects corporate treasuries to diversify into major altcoins and anticipates more active engagement from governments on regulatory frameworks.

In the immediate term, traders are watching key technical levels, with analyst Michaël van de Poppe noting today that BTC is facing a crucial resistance zone near $90,000. According to him, a break above this area could open a path toward $92,000 to $94,000 and increase the chances of a move to $100,000. However, if resistance holds, a deeper correction is possible.

Community sentiment reflects that uncertainty. A poll posted by Titan of Crypto showed nearly 57% of respondents doubting that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 before 2026, while about 43% remain confident it will.