Iran’s strengthened position in the US-Israeli conflict has led to the rejection of US peace proposals. Ceasefire odds by April 7 are at 5.7% YES, down from 10% a week ago. Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 are nearly certain at 99.7% YES.
In the US-Iran ceasefire markets, the odds for an April 7 resolution are effectively nil, with only a 5.7% chance. The April 15 market jumped to 21.5% YES, up from 12% in 24 hours, indicating limited optimism. Longer-term markets for April 30 and May 31 sit at 33.5% and 49.5% YES, respectively, showing skepticism about a near-term resolution.
The US forces entering Iran market by April 30 is locked at 99.7% YES, reflecting near certainty among traders. This aligns with Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, a key leverage point.
Ceasefire markets have seen $994,219 in USDC traded over 24 hours, with $8,964 needed to shift the April 15 market by 5 points. The largest move was a 4-point spike at 2:58 PM. In contrast, US entry markets trade over $53M daily in USDC, indicating strong belief in military escalation.
Iran’s firm stance suggests a protracted conflict. Traders are pricing in continued hostility over a diplomatic breakthrough. A YES share at 5.7¢ for the April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if resolved, showing skepticism over an imminent deal.
Watch for CENTCOM statements or diplomatic moves from Oman or Qatar, which could shift the odds. Specific names or dates in peace talks would signal a change.
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