The crypto market entered a new phase of geopolitical stress on Monday morning when the US Navy began enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports at 10 AM ET, sending Brent crude above $103 a barrel and keeping bitcoin pinned near the $70,000 support level that has held since the Islamabad ceasefire talks collapsed over the weekend.
Summary
- Brent crude rose more than 7 percent to top $103 a barrel after CENTCOM confirmed the blockade, while WTI climbed 7.8 percent to $104; the moves came after the US and Iran failed to agree on extended terms during 21 hours of talks in Islamabad on April 11 and 12, with VP Vance announcing the breakdown Saturday night.
- Bitcoin traded around $70,600 to $71,085 on Monday morning, holding above $70,000 through the blockade announcement; the ceasefire technically remains in effect until April 22, though neither side has indicated it will be extended following the Islamabad collapse.
- CENTCOM clarified the blockade targets maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports only and will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait to non-Iranian ports, a partial scaling back of Trump’s social media announcement which said the Navy would interdict any ship that had paid a toll to Iran.
As CNN Business reported, WTI crude is now more than 50 percent higher than before the war effectively shuttered the Strait in late February. Iran’s oil accounts for roughly 4 percent of world supply, most of it exported to China, and the blockade could cut off a significant source of funding for Tehran’s government and military. Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing wrote in a note that the move “risks creating new potential flashpoints,” raising the question of whether the US Navy would seize allied ships that had paid tolls to Iran or target Chinese vessels in the Strait. Only 17 ships passed through the waterway on Saturday, compared with an average of roughly 130 daily crossings before the war.
Bitcoin’s resilience at the $70,000 level through this weekend’s events is meaningful. The asset dropped into the low $60s when Iran first closed the Strait in late February, then rallied to $72,700 when the ceasefire was announced April 7, liquidating $427 million in short positions. The subsequent pullback to the $70,000 to $71,000 range on the Islamabad collapse and Monday’s blockade news shows the market has partially priced in a return to conflict. Holding $70,000 through a formal naval blockade is a structurally different outcome than the early-war behavior.
What the Oil Price Level Means for Bitcoin
The direct transmission between oil and bitcoin runs through inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy. Every dollar oil climbs above $100 makes a rate cut less likely, keeps liquidity tighter, and suppresses risk appetite across equities and crypto simultaneously. As crypto.news has reported, bitcoin’s behavior as a high-beta risk asset during oil spikes has been consistent across the entire conflict period, with an 85 percent correlation to the Nasdaq-100 during energy price surges.
What Happens Next Before April 22
As crypto.news has noted, three catalysts now define the two weeks ahead: the ceasefire expiry on April 22, the CLARITY Act Senate markup targeted for late April, and the FOMC meeting on April 28 and 29. If the blockade tightens oil supply further and prices push past $110, analysts project bitcoin could fall toward $65,000. A last-minute diplomatic breakthrough before April 22 could reverse that move sharply, as the original ceasefire rally demonstrated.
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