Nvidia reclaims $5T market cap amid US-China AI chip talks

Nvidia’s stock hit $210, reclaiming the $5 trillion market cap. The market on whether it will be the largest company by market cap on April 30 is at 99.6% YES.

Market reaction

The move comes as the U.S. and China discuss potential easing of AI chip export restrictions. The market for largest company by June 30 sits at 92.5% YES, up from 90% a week ago. The sub-market for Nvidia being the second-largest company by April 30 has dropped to 0.4% YES, consistent with the near-certainty priced into the top-spot market.

Why it matters

The April 30 market has $186,981 in USDC traded in the past 24 hours, with $183,166 needed to move the odds by 5 points. The June 30 market has daily volume at $4,178. The gap between the two markets (99.6% vs. 92.5%) prices in roughly a 7% chance that Nvidia loses the top spot between May and late June, likely reflecting uncertainty around trade policy and competition.

What to watch

At 92.5%, YES shares for June 30 offer a narrow return given the high probability already priced in. Any shifts in U.S.-China chip export policy or Nvidia earnings announcements could move the June 30 market more meaningfully than the April contract, which is effectively settled.

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