BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes called the Federal Reserve’s Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) program “QE in disguise,” predicting renewed liquidity will drive Bitcoin higher.
Summary
- Arthur Hayes says the Fed’s RMP program functions like quantitative easing.
- He expects Bitcoin to trade between $80K–$100K before breaking above $124K.
- Hayes predicts renewed liquidity could push Bitcoin toward $200K in 2026.
The Maelstrom Fund CIO expects Bitcoin (BTC) to trade between $80,000 and $100,000 near-term before reclaiming $124,000 and potentially targeting $200,000.
Hayes published his analysis in a December 19 essay titled “Love Language,” arguing that RMP functions identically to quantitative easing through indirect mechanisms.
He announced a portfolio shift from Ethereum into high-quality DeFi assets that he believes can outperform as fiat liquidity improves.
RMP operates through money market fund channel
The Fed introduced RMP at the December 10 FOMC meeting. Hayes’ accounting analysis shows the program purchases short-term Treasury bills from money market funds, which then redeploy proceeds into longer-dated Treasuries or repo markets.
This structure indirectly finances government spending without the political costs of formally announcing quantitative easing.
“While RMP purchases are technically smaller in absolute magnitude than past QE programs ($40 billion monthly), the structural mechanism creates equivalent monetary expansion,” Hayes wrote.
The program becomes more powerful through government reliance on T-bill financing to fund deficits exceeding $2 trillion annually.
Hayes emphasized that New York Fed President John Williams has discretionary control over RMP expansion through vague “ample reserves” guidance.
This structure enables unlimited balance sheet expansion with minimal oversight, which Hayes colorfully termed “Money Printer Go F***** Brrrrr.”
Multi-phase Bitcoin price trajectory through 2026
Hayes forecasts choppy trading between $80,000 and $100,000 from December 2025 through January 2026.
Two factors drive this range: persistent belief that RMP differs from quantitative easing and uncertainty about whether the program continues beyond its April 2026 scheduled end.
Once markets recognize RMP’s true quantitative easing nature, Hayes expects quick acceleration.
Bitcoin would quickly retake $124,000 and move toward $200,000 in early-to-mid 2026. This leg would be driven by institutional FOMO, ETF inflows, and recognition that the Fed is underwriting government spending.
March 2026 represents “peak expectations” for RMP’s asset price inflation capability. Hayes anticipates Bitcoin will decline and form a local bottom “well above $124,000.”
The pullback would be temporary and strategic rather than a cycle top. Hayes expanded his long-term forecast to $500,000 by year-end 2026 in late November comments.
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