Bitcoin Could Bottom at $46K as ‘Electric Cost’ Falls

Traders on Kalshi are currently pricing in a Bitcoin low of $48,000, matching Ted Pillows’ projected floor almost exactly.

The estimated “electric cost” of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below $50,000, according to analyst Ted Pillows.

That shift is adding weight to predictions of a potential price drop below $50,000, with Pillows suggesting it could hit a bottom last seen in 2024.

Mining Economics Point to a Lower Price Floor

“Electric cost” refers to the estimated electricity cost needed to mine a single BTC, and according to Pillows, it has dropped below $50,000 and could fall further toward $45,000.

“This means $BTC will eventually drop below $50,000 and could bottom around $46,000-$48,000, which also coincides with August 2024 lows,” he wrote.

While his view is backed by traders on Kalshi who are currently forecasting a Bitcoin low of $48,000, not everyone thinks the near-term direction will be downward. For example, chartist Ali Martinez recently identified what he described as a “right-angled descending broadening wedge” on Bitcoin’s one-hour chart. Generally, technical traders read that pattern as a bullish reversal setup, and Martinez set a short-term target near $75,700 if the breakout holds.

Meanwhile, Merlijn The Trader highlighted that BTC has reached the “DCA zone” on the Rainbow Chart for the fourth time in its history. According to him, the level has in the past been associated with long-term accumulation periods, with three previous touches of the zone coming right before substantial price rallies.

“The chart has never been wrong,” they stated. “Most people will ignore it again.”

Geopolitics Keeping BTC Pinned Near $70,000

Pillows’ bearish prediction has come at a time when Bitcoin’s price action is being driven more by headlines than by technicals. The asset recently dropped below $68,000 after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to wipe out Iran’s power infrastructure in their ongoing conflict. It then pushed above $71,000 for a little while after Trump changed tune, postponing the said attacks and claiming the two countries had held “constructive” conversations.

However, the Iranians denied Trump’s claims of talks, with the ensuing back and forth eventually taking BTC once again below $70,000 at some point yesterday. At the time of writing, the premier cryptocurrency was inching closer to $71,000, having ultimately gained 8.5% in the last 30 days per CoinGecko.

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Previously, Martinez had described the range between $65,636 and $70,685 as a “no-trade zone,” noting that more than 1.7 million BTC had changed hands at those levels. And with both buyers and sellers digging in, the analyst said the next meaningful move will only come once Bitcoin’s price breaks clearly either above or below that band.

As things stand, traders are caught between two contradictory signals, with the mining cost data and prediction market positioning suggesting that the path of least resistance may be lower, while chart patterns are offering a competing case for recovery.