Bitcoin range shrinks as power law model holds

Bitcoin drew mixed public views after new comments from market observers focused on long-term performance and price structure. 

Adam Livingston said Bitcoin’s recent price action shows a more stable pattern. In a post on X, he wrote that the asset’s oscillations are “dampening” and that the “funnel is closing.” He said this pattern shows Bitcoin moving closer to equilibrium around its long-term power law center.

He added that Bitcoin now sits about “−0.94σ below center,” which he described as below trend and below fair value. Livingston said the narrowing range suggests blowoff tops are fading and that large crashes are also becoming less severe.

Livingston said Bitcoin’s trading range has tightened over time. He wrote that the 5.3σ range seen in 2011 to 2013 has compressed to 1.4σ in the 2021 to 2025 period. He argued that this shift shows Bitcoin trading in a narrower channel as the market matures.

He also pointed to the model’s reported strength during major market events. According to his post, the power law model absorbed the 2022 market crash, the FTX collapse, the 2024 recovery, the 2025 top, and the current drawdown, while its R² value rose to 0.961.

Schiff questions Bitcoin’s long-term edge

As we recently reported, Peter Schiff took a different view by focusing on Bitcoin’s five-year return. He said Bitcoin gained 12% over that period. He also said the Nasdaq rose 57.4%, the S&P 500 gained 59.4%, gold climbed 163%, and silver advanced 181%.

Using those figures, Schiff asked, 

“If the appeal of Bitcoin is its superior long-term performance, why should anyone keep HODLing it?” 

His remarks placed Bitcoin’s recent record next to more traditional markets and metals.