Bitcoin set for ranged trading as Q3 begins: Bitfinex

Bitcoin price hovers near $107,000 as the benchmark digital asset signals further consolidation following a largely positive run from lows of $84k seen in April.

Bitfinex analysts, sharing their outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) in the next quarter, say the struggle for a breakout to $110,000 or higher in recent weeks signals a potential consolidation phase in Q3, 2025. 

Analysts at the crypto exchange noted this in the Bitfinex Alpha report published on Monday, June 30.

Notably, BTC is experiencing a slowdown in on-chain and derivatives activity. This comes after bulls recovered from recent lows, helped by a period of volatility punctuated by the market reaction to geopolitical tensions amid the Israel-Iran conflict.

The macroeconomic environment also dictated action for risk assets.

Bitcoin price historically sees an average of +6% in Q3

While Bitcoin may yet experience a sharp uptick amid other market factors, Bitfinex Alpha analysts say Q3 will likely see range bound trading beginning in July. 

A dearth of upside momentum, including in the exchange-traded funds market, could see BTC mirror the average of just 6% gain between July and end of September seen in this period since 2013. The less optimistic perspective is despite the market having flushed out excess leverage.

“The recent compression in price action reflects a cooling in both on-chain and derivatives activity, with declining spot volumes, reduced taker buy pressure, and a drop in open interest, highlighting that the market is transitioning from an aggressive impulse to a ranging phase,” the analysts noted.

In terms of Bitcoin’s key levels, $100k remains a major support area. However, the short-term holder’s realized price level at $98,700 offers a critical structural zone, where dip buyers will fancy opportunities for accumulation.

Meanwhile, BTC bulls may target a breakout above $110k. Yet, Q3 has historically been a period of low volatility and subdued directional movement. With an average of just +6%, price action will be more within a consolidation range.

“For new all-time highs to be reclaimed, a catalyst, either in the form of macro relief, strong ETF flow momentum, or a breakout in global liquidity will be necessary,” the analysts wrote.