Ethereum meets the Strait of Hormuz as analyst bets on bears, will price go sub $2k again?

BTC.TOP founder Jiang Zhuoer says the US‑Iran war is America’s ‘Suez Canal moment’ and reveals a medium‑term Ethereum short opened at $2,242.

Jiang Zhuoer, founder of mining outfit BTC.TOP and one of China’s better‑known early Bitcoin investors, says he has opened a short position in Ethereum at $2,242, arguing that the US‑Iran conflict marks a “Suez Canal moment” for American power and that the current crypto bear market is not yet over. In a post shared on Binance’s Square platform and relayed by Chinese‑language outlets including PANews and WEEX, Jiang wrote that recent price rebounds driven by war headlines are “all opportunities to add shorts,” framing his ETH bet as a medium‑term macro trade rather than a quick scalp.

Ethereum (ETH) is changing hands near the mid‑$2,200s at the time of writing, having sold off from local highs above $2,600 in late March as risk assets reacted to surging oil prices and renewed geopolitical tension in the Strait of Hormuz. On TradingView’s ETHUSDT dashboards, intraday charts show choppy price action clustered around the $2,200 zone with mixed technical signals: short‑term oscillators lean neutral to slightly bearish, while longer‑term trend gauges still reflect the broader pullback from the 2024–2025 uptrend.

In his note, Jiang drew a direct line between the US‑Iran war, control of the Strait of Hormuz and what he sees as a structural weakening of US hegemony. “This is America’s Suez Canal moment,” he wrote, referencing the 1956 crisis in which Britain lost control of the Suez Canal, an episode often cited as the symbolic end of British global dominance. Jiang argued that the “most likely” outcome of the current conflict is that Iran ends up effectively controlling the Strait of Hormuz and collecting tolls on oil flows, with the U.S. refusing to recognize that legally but ultimately acquiescing in practice.

Kpler, an energy analytics firm, has described the new Strait of Hormuz crisis as one that “reshapes global oil markets,” noting in an April 6 briefing that physical supply is at real risk, southern Iraqi production is being curtailed and Iranian exports had already pre‑surged to multi‑year highs ahead of the confrontation. Against that backdrop, Jiang believes higher and more volatile energy prices will continue to pressure risk assets like Ethereum. He wrote that “the bear market cycle is not over yet” and that “event‑driven rebounds are all opportunities to add to short positions,” while allowing that there is a “small probability” of renewed large‑scale fighting, which he implies would further stress markets.panewslab+4

Jiang did not disclose the size or leverage of his ETH short, but noted that this is a “medium‑term operation,” comparing it to a previous long trade where he bought Ethereum around $1,850 and closed near $2,144. Crypto outlets such as Finbold have highlighted that stance as a starkly bearish signal from a long‑time industry insider, with the publication describing him as a “Chinese billionaire” who has turned negative on ETH in the short‑to‑medium term.

For traders, his framing ties a discretionary macro short in Ethereum at $2,242 directly to a geopolitical thesis about US power, oil chokepoints and the durability of the current crypto downturn. Whether that thesis plays out will depend less on Ethereum’s on‑chain metrics and more on how the war in and around the Strait of Hormuz evolves — and how much energy‑driven volatility global markets can absorb.