Iran’s ability to maintain regional influence despite military setbacks complicates ceasefire prospects. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market is at
The April 15 ceasefire odds moved sharply, with a 24-point spike at 10:34 PM from the previous day’s 12% YES. That rapid jump points to a speculative rush, possibly driven by shifting geopolitical narratives or back-channel diplomatic efforts. Iran’s sustained asymmetric attacks signal ongoing hostilities, yet traders are pricing in near-certainty of a ceasefire. The April 30 market also sits at
In the Iranian regime fall market, odds for a collapse by June 30 have dropped to
Face value trading volume in the ceasefire markets tops $16 million combined in daily activity, but actual USDC traded is $5.2 million. That gap underlines the speculative character of recent trades, with the largest price move (the 24-point spike) likely an overreaction to transient news.
Iran’s regional leverage and asymmetric warfare strategy, even after absorbing military blows, point to a complicated geopolitical situation. Current odds at
Watch for announcements from CENTCOM or changes in Iranian proxy activities. Any movement toward diplomatic engagement or a decrease in hostilities would provide clearer signals for market adjustments.
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