Iran has rejected US ceasefire demands, and mediators report that efforts for a ceasefire have failed. Ceasefire by April 7 sits at 1.1% YES, down from 12% a week ago.
The rejection has hammered short-term ceasefire odds. The April 7 market is effectively dead at 1.1% YES, with just four days left. April 15 also slumped to 6.5% YES from 22% a week ago, reflecting skepticism about quick resolution. The April 30 odds tumbled to 17.5% YES, with a notable 2-point spike suggesting some traders see a mid-April catalyst.
The market has been volatile, with actual trading volume at $431K across all sub-markets in the last 24 hours. The April 7 market is thin — just $12K moves it five points. Meanwhile, the May 31 market saw a 2-point drop, indicating traders are losing confidence in near-term diplomatic breakthroughs. The most substantial shift is between April 30 and May 31, where odds jump by 19 points, suggesting traders expect any potential resolution to materialize later.
This rejection is significant. It reinforces a bearish view on a ceasefire by April. Iran’s demands — closing US bases, sanctions relief, and control over the Strait of Hormuz — are a non-starter for the US. At 1.1¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if a ceasefire is announced. But for that to happen, you’d need to believe in a rapid diplomatic turnaround — a hard sell now.
Keep an eye on any intermediary moves, especially from Oman or Qatar. Also, watch for any shifts in the narrative from US officials or Iran’s proxies. These signals would be crucial for reassessing the ceasefire odds.
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