Iranian President Pezeshkian described Iran’s military actions as “measured” and defensive amid US-Israel-Iran tensions. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are now at 10% YES, down from 22% last week.
The Iranian regime fall market reflects this stability. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 odds dropped to 8% YES, showing doubt about immediate peace. With 90 days left, the June 30 regime fall market trades $125,409/day in USDC, needing $44,931 to shift odds by 5 points, indicating market stability.
Ceasefire markets show varied odds, with April 30 at 38% YES, up significantly. Traders anticipate a mid-April catalyst, as seen in a 19-point rise from April 15 to April 30. The May 31 market is at 56% YES, and June 30 at 66% YES.
Trading volume across ceasefire markets is $7.1M in face value, with $1.3M in actual USDC, showing market depth. The largest move for April 30 was a 4-point spike, reacting to news.
Pezeshkian’s statement suggests a strategy of military readiness with room for diplomacy, reducing regime change urgency and hinting at diplomatic options. A YES share for the regime falling by June 30, priced at 10¢, pays $1 if resolved, offering a contrarian bet on potential internal crises.
Watch for CENTCOM statements and regional alliance shifts, especially involving Oman and Qatar as intermediaries. Secretary of Defense Hegseth’s briefings will be key for any changes affecting ceasefire odds.
Markets Impacted
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