Traders Not Convinced About an Upcoming US-Iran Ceasefire, Polymarket Data Shows

The situation in the Middle East is changing daily. The war between Iran, the US, and Israel sees almost daily updates ranging from threats on behalf of the US to obliterate Iran’s power plants and critical infrastructure to proposed ceasefire agreements.

The latest came hours ago.

According to a report from Axios, the US, Iran, as well as certain unnamed regional mediators, are currently discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire, which could potentially lead to a permanent end of the war. As CryptoPotato reported, this led to an increase in Bitcoin’s price volatility, which topped $69,000 to hit a multi-day peak.

And while the odds of a ceasefire increased following the revelation, prediction markets remain largely unconvinced.

Polymarket Odds of a Ceasefire Tell a Worrisome Tale

One of the most trending markets on Polymarket, with volume approaching $100 million, is the ceasefire between the US and Iran. There are multiple events users can speculate on, with the one with the closest expiry being on April 7th.

Odds of a ceasefire taking place by then are currently 4%, up from about 1% 24 hours ago.

The next expiration date is further out – on April 15th, and the odds of a ceasefire taking place are about 19%, up from about 11% yesterday.

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46% of traders believe that there will be an agreement by May 31st, while 56% think it will happen by June 30th.

In other words, even in the most optimistic scenarios, only about half the traders actually believe a temporary truce will be struck in the next two months.

Market Implications

Surging oil prices have heightened fears of global inflation, as much of the international oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, currently controlled by Iran. This has caused considerable turmoil amid risk-on assets, with indices such as the S&P500 taking a hit in the previous weeks before recovering after de-escalation talks.

That said, even in the most optimistic scenarios, traders remain on the fence of a ceasefire taking place. Should this happen, though, chances are that risk-on assets might see relief and even potential recovery, with BTC being firmly in that boat.