When Will Bitcoin’s Price Reach its Top This Cycle? Analysts Give Key Insights

Long-term Bitcoin holders are seeing their unrealized profits decline even as BTC trades a little over 4% from its all-time highs. According to on-chain data shared by CryptoQuant, the average unrealized profit for long-term holders, based on the MVRV ratio, is around 220%.

The figure is notable but lower than the 300% and 350% levels seen during the March and December 2024 market peaks.

LTH Profits Slide

The realized price for long-term holders now stands at $39,000, which means that significant gains are still present despite the decline in unrealized profits. Moreover, the current profit levels are similar to those last seen during the October 2024 correction, which further indicates that while BTC remains strong, the market has yet to reach peak profit extremes.

To match previous cycle tops, CryptoQuant said that Bitcoin would need to climb toward $140,000, a level many are anticipating.

As Bitcoin trades near $107,000, market participants are preparing for a period that has historically brought slower activity and new narratives. According to crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades, the cryptocurrency has entered the third quarter of 2025, a period historically known for slow price action and lower volumes. Summer months typically bring reduced liquidity for both BTC and ETH, which makes Q3 the quietest quarter of the year.

However, Daan noted that this slower period often sets the stage for new narratives to emerge, which could present new opportunities ahead for traders. This aligns with Bitfinex experts, who said that the bull run is intact, but expect Q3 to be slower

Weaker Momentum?

While seasonal patterns are in play, one concerning factor is Bitcoin’s Bull Score, which has moved into neutral territory at 50.

The metric gauges market conditions needed to continue a rally, and requires a reading of 60 or higher for upward momentum to continue. As such, a reading of 40 would indicate a bearish environment.

The current neutral level suggests that the leading crypto asset lacks sufficient bullish strength to support a sustained price rally at this stage.