The belief that the bear market bottom is in assumes “major invalidation of long-standing principles in bitcoin market cycles,” said one analyst.
After dumping to $60,000 during the early February crash, bitcoin rebounded swiftly and jumped to almost $83,000 a week ago, posting a massive 38% increase. This caused many analysts to speculate whether the bear market had ended.
However, the price action in the past few days has been contradictory, and BTC slipped to a two-week low of $78,000 yesterday. Analysts are not so convinced now that the bottom is in, and here are some of their warning shots.
P/L at High Levels
Ali Martinez brought up the average trader’s realized profit margin, which has reached 17%. He believes this is a “major warning sign” as the metric has hit its highest level since October 2025, shortly before the massive crash that wiped out over $19 billion in leveraged positions and was the beginning of a prolonged downtrend that culminated (for now) with a 53% drop from $126,000 to $60,000. He explained that since the average investor is now sitting on substantial gains, they might be “looking to exit.”
“What stands out to me is the historical context. The last time profit margins hit 17% while Bitcoin was testing its 200-day moving average as resistance was in March 2022.
That specific alignment signaled the exact moment the local top was in before the downtrend resumed in earnest.”
Doctor Profit Still Bearish
One of the few analysts who hasn’t changed their perspective on the current market environment is Doctor Profit. His bearish predictions began around the October 2025 peak, and, as his latest post shows, he has been putting his money where his mouth is, shorting the cryptocurrency from $120,000.
Moreover, the analyst warned a week ago that the rebound to $80,000 might be another bear trap. His new bearish targets are a drop to $50,000 or even lower if the broader macro conditions worsen.
In his latest post, he warned once again that most traders are “not ready for what’s coming.” The chart above doubles down on a path toward $50,000.
$BTC: No one is ready for whats coming , the current status is as follow:
1. Short from 120k
2. Long from 71k (30% Closed)
3. Long from 75k (30% Closed)
4. Shorts accumulated at 82k (30%)
5. Remaining short orders active (70%)Again, most not ready for whats coming pic.twitter.com/oB5N0aTK7m
— Doctor Profit 🇨🇭 (@DrProfitCrypto) May 16, 2026
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History to Be Invalidated
Rekt Capital also weighed in on whether BTC might have bottomed during this cycle, but seemed highly skeptical. The analyst noted that if investors believe BTC won’t go below $60,000, then they must believe in the following:
– The Bear Market has shortened to just 1/3 of the usual time it takes for Bitcoin to bottom
– That there has been a drastic shallowing across Bear Market corrections by ~25% (whereas the historical difference in shallowing across Bear Cycles has been up to ~10%)
– The previous Bull Market never ended, that price is currently recovering from a Bull Market correction and that the previous Bull Cycle has lengthened by over 200 days
If bitcoin has indeed bottomed, which doesn’t seem to be the case according to Rekt Capital’s estimations, then the long-standing principles of BTC market cycles have been invalidated, which is “probabilistically unlikely until proven otherwise,” the analyst concluded.
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