Even the less bearish prediction envisions a substantial decline.
Sell in May and go away is a popular saying in the financial markets, and renowned analyst Merlijn The Trader outlined a historical pattern that could be even more painful for BTC now.
His targets are quite worrying, with the worst-case scenario predicting a massive plunge to $33,000.
Another 60% Decline Soon?
Following bitcoin’s rejection at $82,000 earlier this week and the subsequent correction to a 15-day low of $78,000, the bearish sentiment in Crypto X skyrocketed, with several analysts outlining different scenarios in which BTC could crash further. The latest to hop on the bear bandwagon was Merlijn The Trader, who noted that the cryptocurrency has significantly underperformed in the three previous midterm election years, such as the current one.
According to his data, the asset fell by 61% in 2014, by 65% in 2018, and by 66% four years ago. He warned: “Three cycles. Three dumps. Zero exceptions.” If this pattern is to play out in the current mid-term year, then BTC could plunge to $33,000.
Although there are a few potentially bullish factors now, such as the advancing CLARITY Act and some deals between the US and China, Merlijn added that “the calendar has never been wrong.”
The most brutal pattern in Bitcoin history.
Nobody wants to hear this. But the pattern is perfect.
Mid-term election years. Bitcoin dumps. Every time.2014: Sell in May. -61%.
2018: Sell in May. -65%.
2022: Sell in May. -66%.Three cycles. Three dumps. Zero exceptions.
2026… pic.twitter.com/jErVlpY4BZ
— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) May 17, 2026
Or Maybe Just $45K
In a separate post, Merlijn talked about a different historical pattern that bitcoin could be mimicking now – the 2021 phase. At the time, BTC experienced similar price moves that eventually led to a bigger crash. He outlined the six steps that the cryptocurrency went through at the time, and said the asset could be in the Accumulation phase now (step 4).
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If that’s the case, then BTC could be on the verge of another decline. However, this scenario is slightly less bearish as Merlijn’s targets are somewhere between $45,000 and $59,000. The key to this setup playing out is the $78,000 support, which is currently being tested.
If BTC is to lose that level, it could drop to Merlijn’s targets. However, if it manages to hold, then step 4 could be skipped, and the run might be closer than expected.
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