US rejects Iran proposal, nuclear deal by April 30 unlikely

The US dismissed Iran’s recent proposal for failing to address its nuclear program. The likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 is at 1% YES, down from 7% yesterday and 68% a week ago.

The rejection sent the nuclear deal market into freefall with just six days until resolution. The market has traded $7,699 in USDC, with $1,550 needed to shift odds by 5 points. The diplomatic meeting market for no qualifying meeting by June 30 rose to 16.2% YES, up from 9% yesterday.

The uranium enrichment agreement market collapsed in parallel. Odds for Iran ending enrichment by April 30 are at 0.5% YES, down from 6% yesterday and 50% a week ago. Volume is $4,778 in USDC traded, with $2,529 required to move prices by 5 points.

Iran tried to separate nuclear issues from maritime and economic concerns. The Trump administration rejected this framing, insisting on immediate nuclear concessions as a precondition. That gap between the two positions leaves almost no path to a deal before the April 30 deadline.

Traders holding YES positions in either the nuclear deal or enrichment markets now face near-zero odds. A YES share in the nuclear deal market costs 1¢ against a theoretical $1 payout, but the probability of collecting is extremely low. Any meaningful price movement would require an unexpected diplomatic concession from one side or the other.

Watch for statements from the White House or Iranian officials that signal a shift in negotiating positions. A surprise mediator announcement or unilateral concession could move these markets, though current pricing reflects deep skepticism that either will happen before the deadline.

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